Financial Services

World financial services outlook

August 16, 2012

Africa

August 16, 2012

Africa
Zoe Tabary

Editor

Zoe is an Editor with Amnesty International whose role entails researching and producing reports on human rights issues. Before this Zoe was an Editor with The Economist Intelligence Unit's Thought Leadership team for almost four years. In that time she managed research projects for a number of clients across the energy, healthcare and sustainability sectors. Prior to joining The Economist Intelligence Unit she worked as a journalist in France and the UK. She holds a Master of Science in Marketing and a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science from Sciences Po Paris, and is fluent in French, Spanish and German.

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The Economist Intelligence Unit periodically releases forecasts and outlooks for different industries. This article outlines some highlights from the EIU's latest forecasts for the global financial services industry.

The Economist Intelligence Unit periodically releases forecasts and outlooks for different industries. Here are some highlights from the EIU's latest forecasts for the global financial services industry:

· The global economy will register real growth at purchasing power parity (PPP) of 3.2% in 2012 and 3.8% in 2013, following expansion of an estimated 3.7% in 2011. Growth in developed economies will continue to be fuelled by very relaxed monetary policy even as governments reduce fiscal stimulus. Interest rates will remain low by historical standards, but both the supply of and demand for financing will remain subdued. Key emerging markets will grow much more quickly. 

· Banks in most developed economies face difficult conditions in the coming years. They will continue to suffer losses on loans and securities, even as credit markets remain subdued. Regulation and capital rules will become tighter. Lenders in most developing countries enjoy much more attractive markets for expansion, with scope for growth through bringing services to underserved populations and boosting investment levels. 

· Both life and general insurers will suffer from weak demand in sluggish developed economies in the coming years, following outright declines in global business volumes in 2008-09. Emerging insurance markets are still very small but will grow much more quickly. Adventurous, well-capitalised insurers will target the leading developing economies. 

· Despite favourable demographic trends in the West (and Japan), traditional asset management markets will continue to suffer from pressure on fees, thanks to lingering risk aversion and the rise of a do-it-yourself investing culture. The pressure on private equity firms and hedge funds, which hold generally illiquid assets and charge steep fees, will be the most acute. The rapidly rising ranks of wealthy investors in emerging Asia offers the clearest growth opportunities to the asset management industry, with firms from around the world seeking exposure to the region. 

· The world’s main equity and derivatives exchanges are attracting increased trading volumes and new share issues, although these business volumes remain well below pre-crisis levels. Intense competition continues to put pressure on fees and the market share of established operators. Regulators have vetoed repeated efforts at mega-mergers, but some consolidation of players is expected. Exchanges of all types will look to forge ties with operators in emerging markets.

You'll find more EIU analysis on financial services here:

http://viewswire.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=IB3Home&pubtypeid=1132462498

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited (EIU) or any other member of The Economist Group. The Economist Group (including the EIU) cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this article or any of the information, opinions or conclusions set out in the article.

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