Technology & Innovation

Automated vehicles: Ready or not

December 11, 2017

Australasia

December 11, 2017

Australasia
Our Editors

The Economist Intelligence Unit

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Australia faces unique challenges putting self-driving cars on its roads

Over the next decade, the arrival of automated vehicles (AVs) in Australia will create a transport revolution. Cars able to perform most operational tasks, but that require a human driver to take over in certain circumstances, are expected to be on sale within three to five years. Fully autonomous cars, with no steering wheel or foot pedals, will be available from around 2025. 1

But whether Australia will be ready for them is another matter. Before a self-driving fleet can hit the roads, a suite of operational and regulatory reforms must be agreed and implemented.

Beginning with the broader socio-economic backdrop, Australia is a car-loving nation. More than 90% of Australians live in a household with a car, and its car population is growing faster than the human population.2 It was once home to a substantial car industry, which peaked in the 1970s, but production gradually declined during the 21st century.3 The country’s last car factory closed its doors in October 2017.4

With cars no longer being manufactured down under, the self-driving vehicles of the future will be imported from overseas.

Stuart Ballingall, programme director for connected and automated vehicles at Austroads, an association of road transport authorities, says that “decisions regarding the design and maintenance of our roads will need to be better informed by developments coming out of the automotive industry to ensure that novel technology, developed in other countries, functions on Australia’s 900,000 km-long road system.” Mr Ballingall says tests have revealed that some emerging applications are struggling with some aspects of the country’s road network. For example, speed signs in Australia comply with a unique set of standards. “Slight differences in the font, the colour and size of the annulus (the circle around the speed limit number) aren’t a problem for the human eye, but can pose a challenge to a machine vision camera coded to recognise a very specific design in another country,” he says, adding that correct positioning of speed signs is another key factor.

Painted lines and symbols on roads can also be problematic for cameras in AVs, particularly as they vary in some parts of the country, depending on which authority is responsible for that road.

Vehicles must also be adapted to cope with Australia’s distinctive wildlife. Earlier this year, Volvo discovered that its Large Animal Detection System, which helped cars successfully dodge collisions with elk and caribou in Europe, couldn’t calculate how to avoid a hopping kangaroo. Mid-bounce, the kangaroo appears further from the car than it really is.5

Although a degree of localisation is required, Mr Ballingall says the majority of auto companies and technology providers are not calling for significant changes to the road network.

However, Kyle Loades, recently departed chairman of the National Roads and Motorists’ Association (NRMA), believes that the road system in Australia requires significant modernisation if Australians are to reap the full benefits of AV technology.

He says the NRMA is urging the Australian government to “speed up its investment in smart cities and smart motorways”—roads equipped with technology that allows self-driving cars to communicate with each other and with the built environment, including tunnels, bridges, traffic lights, advisory signs and speed limits. “Policy planning is at an embryonic stage, but autonomous vehicles cannot be launched before this happens.”

Balancing the books

Upgrading roads is costly and, in Australia, raising sufficient funds will require fiscal restructuring. At present, the government relies heavily on fuel excise. “Every time motorists fill up at a gas station, around 40 cents per litre goes to the federal government, which helps to fund roads and public transport,” says Mr Loades.

But as an importer, Australia has no control over auto manufacturing. With many major auto companies planning to fully transition from petrol-powered to electric vehicle production by 2025, the fuel excise revenue stream will, inevitably, dry up.

Mr Loades believes the model most likely to be adopted is a user-charging system that levies a fee for road use on a distance basis.

Reforming the rules

One of the most pressing needs is the overhaul of Australia’s regulatory system. Current laws, formulated when self-driving cars existed only in people’s imaginations, assume that the driver is a human.

If autonomous vehicles are involved in road accidents, the new legal framework must enable authorities to determine who is liable: the manufacturer, the technology supplier, the person in the car or some combination of the three.

Australia’s legislative framework is complicated because it is divided: the federal government is responsible for the design rules applying to new vehicles, but state and territory governments have jurisdiction over standards for vehicles that are already on the roads, road rules, registration, licensing and enforcement.6

Paul Retter, chief executive of Australia’s National Transport Commission (NTC),7 says consistency is vital. “We need to develop a single national regulatory approach that will apply across all states and territories.”

In 2015 the NTC, under the auspices of the Transport and Infrastructure Council,8 undertook a review of regulatory barriers to the introduction of autonomous vehicles, and issued a report that identified over 700 laws and regulations that might require amendment.9 “Our goal is to ensure that these reforms are in place by the end of 2020,” says Retter. “It’s a challenging timeframe, but it’s doable.”

Mr Loades would like to see faster progress. “At present there are virtually no policies that underpin the growth for autonomous vehicles at the federal level. We don’t want a repeat of what happened with Uber, which arrived before the legislation was ready. We must learn from that and make sure it doesn’t happen again.”

Safety first

The biggest predicted benefit of autonomous vehicles is greater safety. According to Mr Loades, “over 90% of accidents are caused by human error—speeding, drink driving, drug driving and drivers being distracted by mobile phones.” With autonomous vehicles, those problems will vanish and “the roads will be significantly safer.”

Autonomous vehicles are also likely to lower transport costs by triggering a pivot from a model of private ownership to a future of car sharing and subscription-based services.

Major beneficiaries are likely to be the elderly and disabled people, and the NRMA also anticipates strong uptake among young public transport users and time-poor professionals. “Quality of life will be enhanced as passengers can spend their journey time being productive or relaxing,” says Mr Loades. Meanwhile, more efficient road use will help tackle worsening congestion in Australian cities.

Chicken and egg

A self-driving future is widely regarded a positive thing, but Australia is currently caught in a chicken-and-egg predicament. It will not be possible to conduct tests and deployment on a grand scale until regulatory reform, infrastructure upgrades and new traffic management plans are in place. But without putting autonomous vehicles on the road, it will be hard to make decisions about which changes and upgrades to implement.

Progress is likely to be piecemeal and incremental, shaped by the fact that for the foreseeable future roads will be populated by a mixed fleet of autonomous and conventional vehicles, each with their own requirements.

As cars with increasingly sophisticated autonomous functions hit the market over the next few years, it remains to be seen if Australia can create the right environment—both physical and regulatory—to enable their widespread adoption.

 


 

1 The future of car ownership, National Roads and Motorists’ Association, October 2017, https://www.mynrma.com.au/-/media/documents/reports-and-subs/the-future-of-car-ownership.pdf?la=en, p33
2 Bernard Salt, “If car ownership keeps growing Australia will be outnumbered”, The Australian, October 21st 2017, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/if-car-ownership-keeps-gro...
3 Paul A Eisenstein, “Australia’s 100-year-old automobile industry just closed down”, NBC News, October 20th 2017, https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/australia-s-100-year-old-automobi...
4 Colin Packham, “Australian car manufacturing ends as GM Holden closes plant”, Reuters, October 20th 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-holden-australia-manufacturing/austra...
5 Naaman Zhou, “Volvo admits its self-driving cars are confused by kangaroos”, The Guardian, July 1st 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jul/01/volvo-admits-its-self...
6 The future of car ownership, National Roads and Motorists’ Association, October 2017, https://www.mynrma.com.au/-/media/documents/reports-and-subs/the-future-of-car-ownership.pdf?la=en, p64
7 The NTC is an independent statutory body charged with improving the productivity, safety and environmental performance of Australia’s road, rail and intermodal transport system
8 The TIC is made up of commonwealth, state, territory and New Zealand ministers with responsibility for transport and infrastructure issues, as well as the Australian Local Government Association
9 Regulatory options to assure automated vehicle safety in Australia: Discussion paper, National Transport Commission, June 2017, http://www.ntc.gov.au/Media/Reports/(6608D654-9FBD-175D-D067-AC80AECE5FB8).pdf, p18

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